Trump vs. the U.S. Economy
About this episode
Months after 'Liberation Day,' economist Natasha Sarin — president of Yale's Budget Lab — walks through what Trump's tariffs are doing to the economy. The effective tariff rate sits around 18 percent, durable-goods inflation is running hot, and while front-running by importers has muted the immediate price shock, companies like Walmart and Procter & Gamble are now raising prices; there is no evidence of the promised investment boom, and the trade deals (including with the EU) look thin. They then turn to the AI boom — is it masking a recession? — the politicization of economic statistics after Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, pressure on the Fed and Chair Powell, stagflation risks, and whether tariff revenue could become a durable (if regressive) fiscal base. Sarin closes with what she would tell a 2029 Democratic president about tax reform: raise revenue fairly and stop leaving the poorest behind.