The Emergent Trump Doctrine

June 3, 2025

Guests: Emma Ashford

Emma Ashford is a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a realist foreign-policy analyst, and the forthcoming author of First Among Equals.

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About this episode

Klein and Emma Ashford debate whether Trump's foreign policy amounts to a coherent 'America First' doctrine. Ashford argues it blends realpolitik instincts, personal transactionalism, and right-wing ideology, with more internal coherence than his first term but no grand strategy. They walk through Ukraine and Russia, where she sees Trump pushing for a settlement regardless of terms; Israel and Gaza; Iran and Syria; Europe, where she warns burden-shifting could hollow out alliances; China and tariffs, where she is skeptical trade wars produce leverage; and the personalization of diplomacy. The best case, she says, is peace deals, shifted burdens, and clearing away failed commitments. The likely failure is distraction, unresolved wars, and China gaining ground while America retreats. A portrait of an emergent doctrine defined more by impulse than design.

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