How Bad Could the Iran Oil Crisis Get?
About this episode
When a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts global oil supply by roughly 10 million barrels a day — the largest disruption in history — Ezra Klein asks energy expert Jason Bordoff how bad the oil crisis could get. Bordoff explains that the strait normally carries about 20 million barrels daily plus a fifth of the world's LNG, and that risk, tanker insurance, and limited bypass capacity matter as much as physical damage. If the closure persists, he says, prices may have to rise drastically to destroy demand, since no policy lever can replace 10–15 million barrels a day. U.S. producers would benefit while consumers and poorer households suffer; Russia may profit and Iran learns the leverage of energy coercion. They discuss whether the crisis accelerates electrification, renewables, and nuclear power — especially in Europe — or instead pushes countries toward domestic coal and reduced interdependence.