What Trump Didn’t Know About Iran
About this episode
Ezra Klein asks Iran expert Ali Vaez what Donald Trump did — and didn't — understand about Iran before the U.S. war. Vaez traces a history from the 1953 coup through the revolution, the hostage crisis, the Iran-Iraq War, the IRGC, the proxy strategy, and the nuclear program, showing how mutual grievances and hard-liners on both sides repeatedly reinforced each other. He argues the JCPOA constrained enrichment and might have strengthened Iran's pro-Western middle class, while Trump's withdrawal and 'maximum pressure' campaign empowered the IRGC, weakened moderates, and accelerated the nuclear program. Iran, he says, also miscalculated: granting proxies too much autonomy, escalating after October 7, and attacking Israel directly. Vaez argues the U.S. negotiators lacked Iran expertise and demanded capitulation even though Tehran was desperate enough that a better deal than Obama's was achievable — and that airpower cannot manufacture a credible successor regime.