These Political Scientists Surveyed 500,000 Voters. Here Are Their Unnerving Conclusions.
About this episode
Political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck present findings from Nationscape, their survey of 6,000 voters every week for 87 weeks — roughly 500,000 interviews — and their book 'The Bitter End.' They argue the electorate is both 'calcified,' with few voters switching parties, and in 'parity,' with the parties closely balanced — so tiny shifts produce enormous consequences. The dominant conflict dimension has moved from economics to cultural identity, and voters now perceive vast party differences, fueling negative polarization. Surprisingly, neither Covid nor the racial-justice protests of 2020 moved the electorate much. They discuss pollsters' persistent undercounting of Republicans, debates over 'popularism,' the education divide, and the puzzle of a Democratic president with 42 percent approval whose party was still favored to hold the Senate.